Every team carries a public rating, an Elo-style number that starts at 1500 and moves after every official map it plays: up for a win, down for a loss, by more for a wide margin or an upset. Each team also builds a small offset per map from its results there, so a side that keeps winning on Lotus is rated a little higher on Lotus. Between seasons every rating keeps 75% of its distance from the average. The rating never sees a player’s true attributes, morale or anything else hidden in the simulation: only the results anyone can read on this site.

A match’s win chance comes from the two ratings and the format. For a best of three or five, each map is priced on the map the teams will likely play, from each side’s past picks in the public veto record, and the series chance follows from those map chances. The odds are one divided by the win chance, rounded to two places, with no bookmaker margin, since nothing is staked. Odds are set at the sim before a match, once both teams are known, and kept on the match page after it is played, so you can see how the prediction held up.